Mobility Global slashes 2026, 2027 Class 8 truck forecasts amid weak H1 and supply chain fears

Market research firm Mobility Global has downgraded its U.S. Class 8 truck and tractor registration outlook for both 2026 and 2027, citing a sluggish first half of 2026 and lingering supply chain bottlenecks that threaten to throttle production scalability next year. In its latest quarterly update, the company cut its 2026 forecast by 1,532 units to 217,589 registrations, down from 219,121 in the previous quarter. The downward revision comes despite a 2.5% boost to the 2026 production forecast, now raised to 161,117 trucks and tractors from 157,252, driven by a surge in order activity. North American Class 8 orders jumped 68% year-over-year in July to 22,100 units, marking the eighth consecutive month of growth, following a 231% spike in June to 31,400 units. Executive Director Andrej Divis acknowledged mixed signals: weak H1 performance balanced by stronger second-half expectations, with demand expected to rebound as orders, production, and sales accelerate. For 2027, Mobility Global delivered a more severe haircut, slashing its production forecast by 9.7% to 161,117 units from 178,197, and trimming registrations by 5,374 to 246,001. Senior Analyst Manny Katakis attributed the 2027 cuts to two factors: first, strong 2026 production pulling forward some demand; second, supply chains struggling to scale quickly enough, leaving some manufacturers vulnerable to delays. The firm also flagged regulatory and policy headwinds, including the EPA’s draft 2027 nitrogen oxide emissions rules, which are expected to ease compliance standards and potentially lower new truck prices by rolling back warranty requirements. Engine giant Cummins responded by lifting its North American heavy-duty truck demand forecast to 240,000–250,000 units, up from its prior guidance of 230,000–250,000. Meanwhile, International Motors is reportedly exploring a second shift at its San Antonio plant, citing a company-specific truck portfolio overhaul, ambitions to boost Class 8 market share, and early signs of an upcycle. Mobility Global tracks registrations as a proxy for demand, noting an unusually long lag between sales and registrations, possibly due to upfitting delays or state-level bureaucracy.