Uber’s Q3 outlook matches estimates as Brazil competition weighs on trips growth

Uber Technologies Inc. delivered a third-quarter bookings outlook that met analyst expectations, but flagged fierce competition in Brazil as a key drag on trip growth, compounding investor concerns about the company’s trajectory in the robotaxi era. The San Francisco-based company projected total gross bookings—its headline metric covering ride hails, delivery orders, and driver and merchant earnings (excluding tips)—to reach $58.25 billion to $60.25 billion for the quarter ending September 30, 2026. Analysts had forecast an average of $59.3 billion, according to Bloomberg-compiled estimates. The guidance also included a note that currency headwinds shaved roughly one percentage point off reported growth. Adjusted earnings per share were projected at 84 cents to 88 cents, again aligning with analyst forecasts. The cautious outlook arrived despite a strong second quarter, where gross bookings hit $58 billion—above Wall Street’s $57.2 billion estimate—fueled by surging demand during the World Cup. Trips, which include both ridesharing and deliveries, grew 18% year-over-year to 3.87 billion, falling short of the 3.9 billion trips analysts had anticipated. Uber attributed the shortfall entirely to Brazil, its largest market by volume, where intensified competition from Chinese rivals Didi Global Inc. and Meituan has squeezed local delivery bikers and dampened growth. The lukewarm outlook did little to quell investor unease about Uber’s ability to sustain growth as robotaxis gain traction. The stock, already down 12% year-to-date ahead of the August 5 earnings release, slipped an additional 1.4% in premarket trading following the report. Uber’s robotaxi ambitions remain a focal point. The company reiterated plans to expand autonomous-vehicle operations to as many as 15 cities by year-end, including San Francisco Bay Area, Los Angeles, Zurich, Madrid, and Tokyo. Current deployments span seven cities globally, though these remain limited in scale. Uber’s push into robotaxis includes a partnership with U.K. startup Wayve Technologies Ltd. to launch services in London in the coming weeks, though these vehicles will still carry safety drivers due to regulatory constraints. Uber has committed over $10 billion to autonomous-vehicle partnerships in recent years, but executives caution that most of these initiatives will take years to materialize. CEO Dara Khosrowshahi framed the company’s role as not just building autonomous drivers, but also aggregating marketplace demand, optimizing dispatch, integrating vehicles, and navigating regulatory hurdles—a holistic approach he argues positions Uber as the leading commercialization platform for robotaxis. The earnings report arrives as rivals DoorDash Inc., Lyft Inc., and Instacart also release quarterly results, setting the tone for the broader ride-hailing and food-delivery sectors.