Replacement demand lifts Cummins’ 2026 heavy-duty truck forecast to 240,000–250,000 units

Cummins raised its 2026 North American heavy-duty truck demand forecast to 240,000–250,000 units, citing stronger replacement demand driven by a freight market rebound. The company’s top executive, Jennifer Rumsey, said during the Q2 2026 earnings call that underlying demand is improving, with carriers prioritizing on-highway truck orders over emissions-related pre-buy activity. The updated forecast exceeds the previous guidance of 230,000–250,000 units. Cummins also boosted its medium-duty truck forecast to 130,000–140,000 units from 125,000–135,000 units. The engine maker expects a smoother transition to model-year 2027 engines through a staggered production rollout, mitigating the impact of stricter EPA nitrogen oxide emissions regulations. Full-year revenue guidance for the engine division was raised to a 9%–14% year-over-year increase, up from the prior 7%–12% range. In Q2 2026, Cummins reported industrywide heavy-duty truck production at 60,000 units, down 4% year-over-year, while its heavy-duty engine sales reached 23,000 units, up 2%. Medium-duty truck production was 32,000 units, an 8% increase, with engine sales totaling 29,000 units, up 19%. Globally, Cummins sold 30,100 heavy-duty engines in Q2, a 1.7% increase, and 86,100 medium-duty engines, a 17.3% jump. The engine division’s revenue rose 6% to $3.08 billion, while total company revenue increased 9.4% to $9.46 billion. Profits climbed 4.7% to $932 million. Cummins raised its full-year revenue guidance to a 10%–13% increase, citing improved demand in North America and China. Executives noted that the transition to model-year 2027 engines, including the X15 and X10, will be gradual, with limited production of the X15 starting in January 2027 and full production expected by Q4 2027. The X10’s limited production will begin in January 2027, with full production targeted for Q3 2027. During the transition, current X12 and L9 engines will remain available for truck and transit bus applications.