Truck buyers hold off amid EPA emissions uncertainty

U.S. Class 8 heavy-duty truck retail sales rose 2.2% year-over-year in July to 19,254 units, marking a second straight monthly increase despite ongoing regulatory uncertainty. The growth comes as fleets and manufacturers navigate proposed EPA emissions revisions that could ease 2027 compliance costs. ACT Research reported July Class 8 orders surged 68% year-over-year to 22,100 units, a 30% drop from June, signaling pre-buying ahead of potential regulatory changes.

The EPA’s July 9 proposed rulemaking aims to reduce the financial burden of upcoming nitrogen oxide emissions standards for new heavy-duty trucks starting January 2027. Key proposals include relaxing extended warranty requirements, eliminating diesel exhaust fluid engine deratements, and introducing temporary nonconformance penalties to ease compliance burdens on manufacturers. While the revisions could lower costs, final rules remain uncertain, leaving buyers and manufacturers in a holding pattern.

Freightliner led the market with a 35.7% share after sales jumped 24.1% to 6,867 units, up from 5,532 last year. Western Star sales fell 18.1% to 865 units, while Mack Trucks dipped 0.8% to 1,890 units. Volvo Trucks North America saw a 3.2% increase to 1,983 units, with the company expecting stronger second-half demand. International Motors sales dropped 14.5% to 1,974 units, though demand for its S13 Integrated Powertrain remained robust. Peterbilt and Kenworth reported declines of 3.2% and 11.1% respectively.

ACT Research Vice President Steve Tam noted that while the freight market shows signs of recovery, spot rates have softened, indicating potential excess capacity. He expects unevenness in the industry until final EPA rules are finalized. Fleets are prioritizing cost efficiency, fuel savings, and total cost of ownership, with many securing 2026 production slots to avoid higher 2027 emissions-related expenses. The market remains resilient, but pricing and value are increasingly critical as dealer inventories adjust.