Transport M&A gains steam as freight market rebounds

Mergers and acquisitions in the transport sector are accelerating in the first half of 2026, fueled by a freight market rebound and sellers who had delayed exits finally returning to the market. Capacity cuts, rising freight rates and stronger investor confidence are driving dealmaking, though buyers remain selective and valuations vary by segment. Advisers expect more transactions in the second half as markets stabilize, with buyers prioritizing businesses with differentiated capabilities over pure capacity expansion. “It is going to get extremely busy,” said Spencer Tenney, CEO of the Tenney Group. The Tenney Group’s 2026 Mid-Year M&A Report highlights that capacity reductions are pushing industry consolidation, alongside factors like rising freight rates, inflation, aging business owners, AI adoption and increased buyer interest. After several slow years of dealmaking during a freight market downturn, conditions have now shifted. “We’ve been waiting for the right conditions to unlock a lot of M&A activity that has been shelved over the last three and a half years,” Tenney noted. Earlier, sellers held off because market conditions were too favorable, but the freight downturn and rising interest rates left many with lower valuations and fewer interested buyers. “I’m hoping we’re going to see an even better market in the second half,” said Jonathan Britva, managing director at Republic Partners. PMCF Investment Banking tracked 121 transportation and logistics transactions in the trailing 12 months through the first half of 2026, matching last year’s total but trailing the 168 deals recorded in 2024. Despite this, the firm sees positive trends. “Commercial trucking has had a standout year in the public markets, with the PMCF T&L index showing a 35.2% share price increase within the subsector in Q2,” said Eddie Zukowski, a director at PMCF. The increase reflects multiple expansions and rising investor confidence. BMO Transportation Finance reports a recovery in the broader transport market, led by asset-light segments, with asset-heavy segments now catching up as trucking recovers. “I believe that the banking market has recently started believing that the upturn in the trucking industry is sustainable,” said Ken Kramer, director of corporate banking at BMO. The Department of Transportation’s late-2025 tightening of enforcement on non-domiciled commercial driver licenses and English-language proficiency standards has further reduced capacity, helping drive improved performance for many transport companies and supporting M&A activity. “The question will be how long that will last and what sort of structural changes we’re going to see,” Britva said. “But to this point, the market, I would certainly characterize as good.” Zukowski expects volumes to stabilize after a multiyear correction, with private equity firms eager to deploy capital. However, he cautions that geopolitical risks continue to impact unit-level economics. Not all sectors are recovering equally. “It’s just really important, as we see these numbers come in, to understand that the impact is not spread evenly across each sector of the transportation and logistics space,” Tenney said. Deal discussions picked up in the first half as conditions stabilized, and Tenney expects alignment between buyers and sellers to improve heading into 2027. Gaurang Shastri, managing director at Lincoln International, noted that while M&A improved in the first half of 2026, it was not a broad-based recovery, with activity remaining highly selective.