Freight Tonnage Slows as Tighter Capacity Drives May Market

Freight tonnage in the U.S. for-hire trucking sector continued its recent slowdown in May, with the American Trucking Associations’ (ATA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index dropping 2% month-over-month to 114.4. Despite the decline, the index remained 0.6% above May 2025 levels, marking the sixth consecutive month of year-over-year growth. Tonnage was up 4.7% in the first quarter but slipped 2.9% over the past two months, leaving the five-month total 2% higher than the same period in 2025. ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello noted that while freight drivers in manufacturing and construction remain sluggish, the index’s sustained year-over-year increase is a positive sign. The Cass Freight Index showed mixed signals, with shipments rising 3% sequentially to 1.041 from 1.011 but still 1.2% below May 2025’s 1.054. This was the smallest decline in 18 months, suggesting gradual stabilization. The Logistics Managers’ Index (LMI) fell 0.4 points to 69.5, down from April but still the second-fastest growth rate since March 2022. Spot market dynamics painted a different picture: DAT Freight & Analytics reported higher truckload spot rates in May despite declining freight volumes. Dean Croke, principal analyst at DAT, attributed the spike to disruptions like International Roadcheck week, Memorial Day weekend, and tightened driver regulations, including new Department of Transportation rules on non-domiciled commercial licenses and English-language proficiency. The DAT Truckload Volume Index fell across all three equipment types—dry vans, refrigerated (reefer), and flatbed—sequentially. Croke described May’s spot market as a month of records, driven largely by Roadcheck week, with rates holding steady into June. He pointed to seasonal demand drivers like post-Mother’s Day produce shipments and the World Cup as factors sustaining elevated rates. Rajeev Dhawan, director of the Economic Forecasting Center at Georgia State University, highlighted the U.S. economy’s resilience to high gasoline and diesel prices, crediting tax refunds and stock market recovery for supporting consumer spending. However, he warned that future spending hinges on portfolio performance and corporate hiring sentiment, which remains cautious due to geopolitical tensions (e.g., the Hormuz dispute) and AI’s growing impact on entry-level jobs. Consumer sentiment data underscored the divide: the University of Michigan’s index hit an all-time low of 44.8 in May before recovering slightly to 48.9 in preliminary June readings, while the Conference Board’s index dipped 0.7 points to 93.1. Dhawan linked weak sentiment to stagnant white-collar job growth and broader economic uncertainty, including concerns about future employment opportunities. The freight market’s trajectory in May reflected a tug-of-war between softer volumes and tighter capacity, with regulatory and seasonal factors propping up rates. Analysts see parallels to pre-pandemic conditions, where incremental demand spikes—like those from produce season or global events—could maintain pricing pressure even as overall tonnage wanes.