USMCA uncertainty casts shadow over North American trucking outlook

The United States’ decision not to renew the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) by the July 1, 2026 review deadline has injected fresh uncertainty into North America’s freight and trucking sectors. The move—widely anticipated but still unsettling—shifts the trade pact onto an annual review cycle, raising the specter of prolonged negotiations that could stretch for years. With cross-border truck freight surging in April, including a 23.4% jump in U.S.-Mexico traffic, the lack of clarity is already rattling supply chains, sourcing strategies, and compliance planning. Executives warn that uncertainty disrupts shipping patterns and investor confidence, undermining the very predictability that fuels trade volume. “I wonder whether this will be something that we live with for the next couple of years and then maybe something gets signed for a longer-term agreement,” said Mark Kunar, CEO of DHL Supply Chain North America. The stakes are high at Laredo, Texas—the nation’s busiest land port, handling roughly 40% of inbound Mexican truck traffic. Bennett Motor Express, a Laredo-based carrier ranked 38th on the TT Top 100 list of North America’s largest for-hire carriers, is among those bracing for impact. “Uncertainty can influence shipping patterns, sourcing conversations and compliance planning before any formal policy changes are made,” noted Miguel Hernandez, a terminal manager at Bennett Motor Express. Trucks moved $98.4 billion worth of freight across U.S. land borders in April, an 18.8% increase over April 2025, according to Bureau of Transportation Statistics data. U.S.-Mexico freight alone totaled $86 billion, up 23.4% year-over-year. Detroit, Port Huron (Michigan), and Buffalo (New York) led cross-border truck traffic with Canada, while Laredo, El Paso (Texas), and Otay Mesa (California) dominated U.S.-Mexico flows. The auto industry remains a flashpoint in USMCA talks, with trade groups urging the U.S. Trade Representative to strengthen and extend the deal. In late June, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce called for a swift, transparent review to preserve stable rules for North American commerce. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump’s recent rhetoric—including social media posts suggesting Canada should become a U.S. state—has deepened tensions. The U.S. and Mexico are scheduled to hold a third round of bilateral negotiations the week of July 20, but talks with Canada have yet to begin. Canada and Mexico formally requested renewal in early June, starkly contrasting with the U.S. stance. Carriers like R+L Carriers (ranked 16th on the TT100), Southeastern Freight Lines (24th), and A. Duie Pyle (51st) expanded cross-border operations over the past 18 months, betting on USMCA’s benefits amid limited growth elsewhere. The policy turbulence of 2025, which roiled global trade, served as a dry run for USMCA uncertainty, according to Kunar. “Last year’s shifts in trade and tariff policies gave many organizations an opportunity to stress-test their supply chains and identify where greater flexibility and resilience were needed,” he said. For now, DHL Supply Chain—ranked 12th on the TT100 list of North America’s largest logistics firms—is doubling down on scenario planning. “Everybody should scenario plan for that,” Kunar advised, urging shippers to identify single points of failure that could crumble under policy shifts. The USMCA, which took effect on July 1, 2020, required a renewal decision by July 1, 2026, under Article 34.7 of the treaty. Failure to extend it for another 16 years means the pact now faces annual reviews, prolonging the limbo for industries reliant on seamless North American trade.