Class 8 Truck Dealers’ Optimism Soars for 2026-27 Demand Despite Lingering Uncertainty

Truck dealers are banking on a rebound in Class 8 truck demand for 2026 and 2027, with the American Truck Dealers (ATD) lifting its sales forecasts to 227,000 units for 2026—a 7.5% increase from its earlier projection of 210,000—and 250,000 units for 2027, up 12% from a previous forecast of 220,000. The optimism stems from carriers resuming equipment purchases as economic uncertainty stabilizes and freight conditions show signs of recovery, according to Patrick Manzi, chief economist for ATD, a division of the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA). “The business community is realizing that all of the uncertainty out there, be it the tariffs, the war, whatever it is, it’s almost like this is kind of the new normal, and we’ve got to get on with it and move forward and maybe go out and take a bigger risk than maybe we’re comfortable with, but we need to move forward and buy new equipment,” Manzi told *Transport Topics* in an exclusive interview. The improved outlook follows a chaotic 2025, when tariffs introduced by the Trump administration—including duties on medium- and heavy-duty trucks and parts—froze carrier investments amid macroeconomic jitters. Those same trade policies also delayed any rebound in the freight market, prolonging what has become the longest downturn in industry memory. Manzi emphasized that unless major policy shifts occur, the industry is poised to make significant capital investments in new trucks. Orders for Class 8 trucks surged in May, marking a sixth consecutive month of year-over-year growth with a 103% increase to 26,500 units compared to May 2025. This followed four straight months of triple-digit percentage gains. May’s orders also outpaced the 10-year monthly average of 17,046 units by 56%, according to FTR Transportation Intelligence. However, year-to-date sales through May 2026 remain down 16% compared to the same period in 2025, with 73,419 units sold versus 87,447. Truck manufacturers are now scrambling to catch up after 2025 orders collapsed, forcing production slowdowns—including a temporary shutdown at Volvo Trucks North America’s flagship facility in Dublin, Va., during Q1 2026. Dealers report a growing appetite among carriers to invest despite ongoing instability. Korey Neal, CEO of K. Neal Truck and Bus Center in Hyattsville, Md., which sells International, Hino, and Iveco vehicles, noted that the removal of tariff uncertainty has allowed businesses to refocus on execution. “Last year, there was a lot of uncertainty, whether it was tariffs; are they here, are they not? I think that we know that we have a plan to move forward, and tariffs are what they are, so now we can execute based upon the current business environment,” Neal said. The Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals’ 2026 State of Logistics Report, released in June, underscores that uncertainty is now a permanent fixture in 2026 and likely to persist. Carriers are adapting by embracing supply-driven capacity reductions, which have pushed freight rates up for the first time in four years and fueled expectations of a sustained recovery in the freight market.