Tomato Prices Surge 40% — Now the Face of Grocery Inflation After U.S. Ends Mexico Tomato Deal

Tomatoes have become the latest poster child for America’s grocery inflation crisis, with prices jumping roughly 40% over the past year—far outpacing other staples like coffee (up 18.5%), beef roasts (up 17.8%) and frozen fish (up 12%), according to the latest consumer price index. The spike has turned a once-humble produce staple into a symbol of sticker shock, with shoppers filming $8-per-pound tomatoes in supermarkets and chefs warning that even basic cooking has become a financial gamble.

The surge traces back to a cocktail of trade policy and geopolitical turmoil: the U.S. exited a duty-free import deal with Mexico last July, slapping a 17% tariff on the bulk of America’s tomato supply, while the Iran war and extreme weather choked supply chains and sent shipping costs soaring. Federal data shows U.S. tariff revenue on tomatoes exploded from just $16,424 in 2024 to nearly $4.6 million in 2025—a 27,879% spike—with the pain rippling through restaurants and food businesses.

Snarf’s Sandwiches, which uses tomatoes on nearly every sandwich across its Colorado, Missouri and Texas locations, saw its tomato costs balloon from $27 to $93 per case in a year, adding over $1.7 million to its annual food bill. Economists warn the hit will linger until domestic harvests arrive later in 2026, though even then, farmers may struggle to ramp up production fast enough to ease prices.

The broader inflation picture remains grim: the latest gauge shows overall prices rose 3.8% in April compared to a year ago—the highest jump in nearly three years—leaving consumers and businesses alike scrambling for relief.