Driver Pay Pressure Rises as Capacity Declines

The trucking industry is facing increased pressure to reassess driver compensation due to a decline in capacity and an improvement in freight demand. According to the Q2 2026 Driver Recruiting & Retention Data Download Report, 26% of carriers have increased driver pay in 2026. Carriers are positioning for stronger freight demand through 2027 while balancing compensation against tight margins and uncertainty over fuel prices and inflation. The Department of Transportation’s tightening of enforcement of non-domiciled commercial driver licenses and English-language proficiency standards has accelerated a decline in capacity. As a result, competition for drivers has rebounded, driving up hiring costs, sign-on bonuses, and pay increases at several fleets. Some fleets, such as Crete Carrier, have announced pay increases, with Crete raising starting pay for new over-the-road drivers to between 64 cents and 69 cents per mile. Other fleets, including TMC Transportation and Melton Truck Lines, have also introduced new driver pay initiatives. Industry experts, such as Priscilla Peters and Avery Vise, believe that the competition for drivers will continue to intensify as the year goes on, with fleets taking a more targeted approach to driver compensation, emphasizing tenure, safety, fuel economy, and other driver-specific incentives.