Oil and Gas Supplies Could Take Months to Return to Normal

Global oil and gasoline supplies won’t rebound overnight despite a June 14 agreement to end the Iran war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, energy experts warn. About 20% of the world’s oil supply was disrupted by the conflict, and recovery will stretch over months due to slow shipping, lingering security concerns, and halted production. Stranded tankers in the Persian Gulf—unable to safely transit the strait for more than three months—must first exit, while new vessels need to be loaded under secure conditions. Restarting production at shut-in wells and reassuring insurers and crews will take time, with some producers potentially requiring up to a year to return to full output. Brent crude, the international benchmark, slipped $3.45 to $83.89 per barrel early June 15, while U.S. benchmark crude fell $4.03 to $80.85 per barrel. Both remain well above prewar levels near $70 per barrel. The logistical hurdles are steep: oil tankers move slowly, and refineries must process crude before it reaches markets. Countries with alternative export routes, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, may recover faster, but Iraq and others with more severe production shutdowns could take about a year to normalize. Security and stability in the strait are critical; producers won’t restart operations until they’re confident the ceasefire will hold beyond short-term windows. Investment in the energy sector, stalled since the strait’s closure, will also take years to revive. Experts emphasize that the psychological and operational barriers—insurance, crew safety, and asset restart—are as daunting as the physical logistics.