Natural Rubber Supply Dips in July Amid Market Uncertainty

The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) has reported that global natural rubber production is expected to rise seasonally in July, but weather disruptions and supply constraints continue to impact the market. According to the ANRPC’s July report, global natural rubber output is projected to be 1.321 million tonnes in July, down 5.15% year-on-year, while consumption is forecast at 1.297 million tonnes, up 0.8%. The market is characterized by seasonally improving production but continued uncertainty over supply due to uneven rainfall, high temperatures, and the emerging El Nino. For the full year, ANRPC expects global natural rubber production to increase 2.1% to 15.279 million tonnes in 2026, from 14.971 million tonnes in 2025. However, this increase is constrained by weather-related disruptions, low replanting, geopolitical tensions, and other structural challenges. Thailand is forecast to remain the largest producer, followed by Indonesia and Vietnam. On the demand side, ANRPC expects global natural rubber consumption to increase only 0.4% to 15.356 million tonnes in 2026, from 15.301 million tonnes in 2025. The latest forecast represents a downward revision from June, mainly reflecting revised forecasts for Japan, Korea, Mexico, and the ‘rest of the world’. Demand is supported by resilient tire replacement activity, expanding electric-vehicle markets, and continued growth in automotive production, but is limited by seasonal weakness in tire manufacturing, high raw-material costs, trade restrictions, and geopolitical disruptions.