Ford shares extend gains as energy storage ambitions face reality check

Ford Motor Co. shares were up 1.5% on July 28, 2026, at 2:30 p.m. New York time, holding gains from a 44% surge in May driven by investor excitement over the company’s AI-linked battery energy storage business. The stock remains above pre-rally levels despite analyst warnings that profitability and large-scale partnerships in energy storage could take years to materialize. Ford’s upcoming earnings report is expected to focus on customer announcements and partnership updates to sustain investor enthusiasm. Analysts note that while energy storage is viewed as a potential growth driver, concrete progress—such as building a backlog—will be critical for maintaining market confidence. Morgan Stanley’s Andrew Percoco emphasized that investors will react to visible progress, not just future projections. Ford’s energy storage push, including a partnership with Chinese battery giant Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. (CATL), has been framed by CEO Jim Farley as a “high growth, high margin, anti-cyclical market development.” Estimates for Ford’s 2026 adjusted profit have risen by about 11% over the past three months, according to Bloomberg data. Percoco previously highlighted Ford’s energy storage business as a potential $10 billion opportunity, drawing parallels to Tesla’s energy unit, which contributed over 13% of its revenue in 2025. However, scaling the business is expected to ramp up in 2027, with meaningful contributions not anticipated until late 2028. Analysts like Jefferies’ Philippe Houchois upgraded Ford to “buy” this week, citing energy storage as a key reason, while Bank of America’s Alexander Perry and BNP Paribas’ James Picariello stressed the need for incremental partnership updates. Ford Energy has already struck a deal with EDF Power Solutions North America, but analysts caution that scaling partnerships to meet intended capacity could take several years, even beyond 2028. Ford’s recent stock performance has outpaced General Motors (GM) and Stellantis, with a 20% gain since its last earnings report in April compared to GM’s 14% and Stellantis’ 26% decline. However, over the past five years, GM’s shares have surged nearly 60%, dwarfing Ford’s 6.5% advance. GM’s recent earnings beat and raised full-year profit outlook sent its stock nearly 9% higher last week, underscoring Ford’s struggles in its core business. BNP Paribas’ Picariello noted that Ford’s execution gaps compared to GM may require bolder moves to lift its stock price. The energy storage segment remains a high-stakes gamble for Ford, with investors closely watching for tangible progress in partnerships and customer commitments.