Strategist Sees ‘Extremely High’ Risk of $5 Gas by November

Jeff Currie, a veteran commodities strategist, believes that U.S. gasoline prices are highly likely to reach $5 a gallon before the November 3 midterm elections. He attributes the rising fuel prices to shortages spreading from refined products to crude oil, as well as market concerns over sustained supply disruptions. Currie also warned that diesel could reach $7 to $9 a gallon, signaling a more structural shortage in the oil complex. He believes that the recent price moves, including an 8% increase in Brent futures, indicate that markets are bracing for larger and more-sustained supply disruptions. Currie’s comments come as the national average price of gasoline continues to rise, reaching over $4.29 a gallon as of September 10. He also noted that refineries are cycling between diesel and gasoline output, which will eventually exhaust their operational flexibility. Currie’s warning comes as the U.S. is still reeling from the recent flare-up in the U.S.-Iran war, which has pushed oil prices higher.