SMBs optimistic for rest of 2026, boosting trucking margins

Small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) are outperforming expectations in 2026, according to a DHL Express U.S. survey, signaling strong support for trucking margins—particularly in the less-than-truckload (LTL) sector. The survey found that 38% of SMBs exceeded their first-half 2026 plans, while 36% met their forecasts, and 85% expressed confidence in achieving their goals for the rest of the year. Economic activity in manufacturing, as measured by the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing PMI Report, has expanded for six consecutive months, underpinning this optimism despite ongoing trade and fuel uncertainties. Trade policy remains a wildcard, with U.S.-Mexico negotiations resuming the week of July 20 and Canada not yet formally involved. The potential collapse of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) adds further uncertainty, as 66% of businesses affected by tariffs have already raised prices to offset higher costs. Diesel prices, a critical concern for SMBs and carriers, averaged $4.668 per gallon nationwide on June 29, down from a May peak of $5.639 per gallon but still significantly higher than the $3.477 per gallon at the start of the year. The freight market recovery, delayed by tariffs and trade policy shifts, is now gaining momentum as SMBs recalibrate their international growth strategies rather than abandoning them. Carriers like FedEx Freight, the largest LTL operator in North America, are prioritizing SMBs in the $9 billion LTL segment, while TFI International’s TForce Freight unit has seen a turnaround after targeting higher SMB market share. The survey, which polled over 400 SMB decision-makers across industries, highlights a resilient freight sector despite inflationary pressures and geopolitical disruptions.