The Freight Market Has Finally Turned

The U.S. trucking market has flipped to a carrier-led recovery after nearly four years of depressed freight rates, with spot and contract rates climbing sharply. The rebound is driven by shrinking capacity—not rising freight demand—due to stricter federal enforcement on compliance, driver qualifications, and safety, along with carrier exits and higher equipment costs. Analysts describe the shift as a structural, permanent reduction in supply, with enforcement actions like the U.S. Department of Transportation’s crackdown on noncompliant carriers and drivers removing marginal capacity from the market. The enforcement push includes stricter vetting for non-domiciled commercial driver licenses, English-language proficiency requirements, targeting of inadequate driver training programs, and removal of tampered electronic logging devices. “That pushed the market over the edge,” said Bob Costello, chief economist at the American Trucking Associations. “Supply had been coming down for a long time. It was just painfully slow.” The market’s tightness was evident during the Commercial Vehicle Safety Alliance’s International Roadcheck safety blitz in May, where spot rates for dry van, flatbed, and refrigerated segments hit record highs, including a $2.78 per mile average for flatbed—the highest in DAT’s dataset since 2010. Linehaul spot rates have risen for nine consecutive months in dry van and refrigerated segments and six in flatbed, with May recording the largest monthly gains. Carriers now hold the negotiating power, reversing years of shipper dominance, as the industry moves into a long-awaited upcycle. While broader economic demand remains uneven, the structural capacity crunch—fueled by regulations, higher equipment costs, and labor constraints—is expected to keep rates elevated. Large carriers like Schneider have highlighted the role of tougher regulatory enforcement in removing capacity, further tightening the market.