U.S. Trailer Orders Jump 237% Year-Over-Year Despite Seasonal Slowdown

U.S. trailer orders skyrocketed 237% year-over-year in May, defying seasonal norms with 20,700 units booked, according to ACT Research’s preliminary data. FTR Transportation Intelligence reported a similar surge of 249%, tallying 20,189 units—both figures handily beat April’s totals and the 10-year average of 11,649 units. Analysts attribute the spike to replacement demand, normalization in dry van orders, and strong flatbed activity, offsetting weak freight conditions. The year-ago baseline was exceptionally low, amplifying the percentage gains. Jennifer McNealy, director of commercial vehicle market research at ACT, noted that order momentum that should have started in late 2025 only began in December, potentially supported by rising freight rates. Despite the uptick, caution remains among buyers due to tariffs, rising prices, and tight production slots. Dan Moyer, senior analyst at FTR, emphasized that demand is concentrated in replacement cycles and fleet-specific needs rather than broad capacity expansion. He warned that Section 232 tariffs and pending antidumping duties on van-type trailers could further inflate costs, tightening build slots and extending lead times. Brandon Lairsen, vice president of trailer leasing at Transport Enterprise Leasing, described May as a solid month for leasing but noted capacity constraints even amid lackluster freight demand. He highlighted a wave of forced replacements driven by trailers aging past 10 years, particularly among less sophisticated carriers pressured by freight brokers to avoid older equipment. Lairsen also pointed to rising trailer prices and expectations of further increases in the second half of the year, pushing fleets toward leasing deals before costs escalate. Both ACT and FTR cautioned that Q2’s final month and Q3 remain uncertain as tariffs, pricing pressures, and limited production capacity could disrupt order flows.