BMW Group revises 2026 guidance amid China slowdown and Middle East conflict

BMW AG’s Board of Management has revised its full-year guidance for 2026, citing a deteriorating operating environment and a one-time impact from accelerated structural and efficiency measures. The company now expects a slight decline in automotive segment deliveries compared to the previous year, down from a previously forecast flat performance. Profitability metrics have been sharply downgraded: the Automotive Segment’s EBIT margin is now projected in the 1–3% range (previously 4–6%), while Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) is expected to fall into the 1–5% corridor (previously 6–10%). Group profit before tax is now forecast to decline significantly, compared to the earlier expectation of a moderate decrease. Scope 3 CO₂e emissions remain unchanged year-over-year, whereas the prior outlook had anticipated a slight increase. Despite these headwinds, BMW Group expects Automotive Free Cashflow to exceed €2.5 billion, and it is maintaining its dividend payout ratio of 30–40% of net income attributable to BMW AG shareholders, alongside its ongoing share buyback program. The company also reaffirmed its aggressive product rollout, with more than 40 new and updated models—including multiple NEUE KLASSE variants—scheduled for launch by 2027. The all-electric BMW iX3 has already seen exceptional demand since its world premiere at the IAA in September 2025, with one in three all-electric BMW orders in Europe now attributed to the iX3. In response to strong order intake, the Debrecen (Hungary) plant has already moved to a two-shift schedule ahead of schedule. The second NEUE KLASSE model, the all-electric BMW i3, debuted in Munich in March 2026, and received strong early feedback. In April 2026, the long-wheelbase BMW iX3, long-wheelbase BMW i3, and the new BMW 7 Series—featuring NEUE KLASSE technologies—had their world premieres in Beijing, marking a key milestone in scaling the new platform and design language across the portfolio. The company’s half-year report is scheduled for publication on July 30, 2026.